Lessons from the Democrats’ Failures in Positioning and Messaging
The profession of politicians has lost the trust of many people. Let’s be honest — how many still believe the policies they promise will ever be enacted during their term? The lack of accountability is a foundational failure of modern political systems. Voters, left with few other outlets, often resort to voting out those they hate rather than voting for those they trust. Hatred is an unimaginably powerful tool, one that can drive voters to support individuals who may even deny their identity and rights.
This article examines how Democrats failed in marketing, specifically in their positioning and messaging strategy, with a focus on Kamala Harris’s campaign. While Trump built a wall around America, the Democrats seemed to build a wall around themselves, isolating their message from the voters they needed most.
Learn About American Trends in Real-time
Understanding voter sentiment in the digital age requires more than traditional polling; it demands a deep dive into where and how people engage online. The online space provides a wealth of data, but it’s far from impartial. Formal polling methods are increasingly plagued by sampling biases, reducing their reliability. For example, traditional poll aggregators and institutional surveys predicted a close race between the candidates. Yet the momentum online told a different story, revealing critical insights into voter behavior and sentiment.
Platforms like Reddit and search engines such as Google and Bing lean heavily left in their search results and audience demographics. This bias can create a misleading picture, as seen in the slight edge Kamala Harris had in search interest on these platforms. Many subreddits lean heavily to the left, with users actively sharing images and narratives of voting for Harris, creating the illusion that she was a strong favorite among voters. However, deeper analysis reveals the disparity: according to SEMrush, Donald Trump’s keyword searches were double those of Harris.
SEMrush data highlights a crucial distinction: traffic for Trump is concentrated, driven by targeted platforms such as his official websites, trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov and donaldjtrump.com, as well as his robust social media presence. In contrast, Harris’s traffic is diverse and dispersed, lacking a clear focal point to anchor her online narrative. Trump’s positioning as a political influencer — with a blend of Facebook, X (formerly Twitter), and direct outreach — amplifies his messaging.
This online activity aligns with trends observed on Polymarket, a decentralized blockchain-based betting platform. Unlike traditional polling, Polymarket operates as a market-driven system, similar to a stock exchange, where users buy and sell shares reflecting the probability of specific outcomes. This share-based methodology allows for complex investment strategies aimed at minimizing risk, making predictions more dynamic and real-time. The fluctuating share prices, driven by market demand and supply, arguably provide a more immediate reflection of the evolving probabilities of an event’s outcome. What distinguishes Polymarket is that participation is not limited to Americans, though it is presumed that a significant portion of its user demographic consists of young American men. The platform’s unique nature — where decisions are tied to monetary bets — offers valuable insights into market sentiment during the election cycle. As professor Aswath Damodaran notes, confidence in traditional polling has waned due to declining participation rates, as people increasingly avoid unknown calls. In this context, platforms like Polymarket may offer an alternative lens through which to understand election trends, signaling the growing relevance of political betting in future electoral analyses.
Although each prediction method carries inherent biases, the alignment between Polymarket and SEMrush data provided a revealing snapshot of public opinion. This consistency highlights a critical gap in the Democrats’ strategy: they have a diverse and engaging following yet their failure to effectively identify and engage with the platforms and channels that accurately capture voter sentiment.
Democrat's Vague Positioning Without Iteration
Kamala Harris’ 2024 campaign struggled due to a lack of clear, iterative positioning. In every presidential election, candidates have several months to navigate primaries and caucuses, gathering feedback and adjusting their proposals. However, Harris launched her campaign on July 21, 2024, giving her only two months to build her team, define her branding, and craft her policies.
Harris’ candidacy was as a strategic gamble for the Democrats — more of a sacrificial move than a bold pivot. The question was, who else would step up to lead a party in crisis, if not the vice president? Despite strong signals that Americans were dissatisfied with Biden’s policies, the Democratic campaign team failed to adjust their positioning when leadership changed. Rather than pivoting, the campaign focused on economic data that didn’t align with voters’ real concerns. This was like the difference between the current temperature and the “feels-like” temperature in Canada — a reflection of reality versus perception. For many Americans, especially those earning under $50,000, the “feels-like” inflation became their reality, and the economic indicators didn’t speak to that.
While the U.S. economy performed relatively well compared to other countries, inflation deeply affected the financial wellbeing of 65% of Americans. Since 2008, the concern about the high cost of living had jumped from 18% to 41%. Despite these concerns, the Democrats continued to promote a message rooted in Obama’s campaign, emphasizing cultural diversity and progressive values. They underestimated the desperation and psychological toll of economic uncertainty, particularly how citizens felt about the Federal Reserve’s “soft landing.” In reality, the outcome resembled a K-shaped recovery, where the wealthy benefited while the poor faced greater struggles. How would you feel living paycheck to paycheck while your government insists everything is going great?
While some were dissatisfied with the COVID measures, the working class faced uncertainty about what to expect. Economic professionals offered various predictions, often focusing on different potential outcomes of quantitative easing, but no one could definitively predict the future. The lack of clear expectations from the government contributed to growing anxiety. In times of uncertainty, Americans needed reassurance, and Trump’s assertive messaging seemed to provide that. Elon Musk’s warning about a potential market crash and job losses under a Trump presidency was stark, but it at least offered a sense of direction to some. In high uncertainty, people seek clear answers, and vague positioning only amplifies and fuels conspiracy theories.
Creating a Bias Message in an Echo Chamber
Across the country, while the majority of women voted for Harris, her margin of support fell short of the historic levels needed for success. Early exit polls suggest that Harris’s advantage among women was around 10 points, but this was four points lower than Joe Biden’s performance in 2020. The Democrats also experienced a significant 10-point drop in support among Latino women and failed to make significant gains among non-college-educated women. Additionally, Harris lost 10 percentage points compared to Joe Biden, who secured 90% of the Black vote. Why?
Republicans presented a clearer and more focused message. In 2016, Trump benefited from the strategic influence of Steve Bannon, whose controversial right-wing views helped shape the Trump campaign’s narrative. Bannon, described as “The Great Manipulator” by Time magazine, played a pivotal role in crafting Trump’s messaging, particularly in his focus on illegal immigration according to the book Devil’s Bargain: Steve Bannon, Donald Trump and the Storming of the Presidency by Joshua Green. Bannon’s deep understanding of the political power of this issue allowed Trump to dominate the Republican base and shift the focus to anti-Hillary Clinton rhetoric, which energized his base and became the MAGA movement. This messaging continued to resonate strongly, especially in an era where economic uncertainty led many to blame immigration and globalization for their job insecurity. This narrative successfully rallied the Republican base and propelled it into the forefront of the mainstream political conversation.
Trump’s strategic use of negative press and controversial remarks positioned him as more emotionally honest and trustworthy in the eyes of many. Throughout his political campaigns, he employed key figures, including Steve Bannon, Kellyanne Conway, and Elon Musk, to help mainstream and test different messaging. Trump’s embrace of the “no press is bad press” mantra, exemplified by Musk’s admission of a potential market crash, validated the concerns of younger voters and provided them with clear answer where their anger should be directed to. Trump, often seen as embodying Southern culture, frames many of his messages with gender-based rhetoric, presenting a distinctly masculine persona that contrasts with the perceived femininity of “woke” culture. His approach emphasizes being “down-to-earth” and aligning with shared values, presenting himself as more approachable and relatable, similar to a friendly salesperson.
On the other hand, Democrats have continued to rely on Obama’s multicultural and gender-based rhetoric, a strategy that has become less resonant during a time when the working class is more focused on immediate economic concerns. The Democratic Party’s campaign messaging is largely shaped by West Wing Writers, a group that provides progressive branding and strategic services. During a pivotal year at the White House, Kate Childs Graham played a significant role in shaping the Biden-Harris Administration’s messaging on key issues such as racial justice, reproductive rights, COVID-19, and climate change. Notably, Childs Graham also crafted speeches for the Clinton-Kaine campaign and the 2016 Democratic National Convention. However, if the Democratic Party continues to rely on the same messaging approach, disconnected from the broader concerns of many Americans, particularly in rural, landlocked areas, it risks alienating working-class voters.
The party needs a progressive and classical liberal ideology that resonates with swing voters and addresses their financial and economic needs. It has been 15 years since Obama’s election, and while there has been some progress, many of the fundamental issues remain unchanged. Meanwhile, Trump operates like a startup — pivoting, iterating, and constantly refining his approach to win over voters. In this regard, the Democrats’ strategy appears weak, lacking the resolution necessary to secure a win.
The Most Effective Political Messaging Channel
Votes, like consumer behavior, are often driven by emotion. Trump’s campaign was characterized by targeted communication, with a particular focus on podcasts rather than traditional news media outlets. Trump’s ability to listen and adapt his messaging is evident in his proactive approach and assertive tone, which resonated with younger audiences who are facing high uncertainty and feeling overlooked by the Democrats.
The most effective messaging channel in 2024 turned out to be podcasting, which has a market cap of $36.67 billion and is projected to grow at a CAGR of 30.1% through 2033. Trump capitalized on media personalities and influencers to connect with young voters. According to analysis by the Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning and Engagement (CIRCLE), 42% of young Americans voted in the 2024 presidential election, a decrease from 50% in 2020. However, in crucial battleground states — Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin — youth turnout reached approximately 50%. Trump’s appearance on Joe Rogan’s podcast garnered over 46 million views on YouTube, while his interview with Vice President-elect JD Vance attracted more than 15 million views. Trump also targeted young male voters by engaging with podcasters such as Theo Von, Barstool Sports’ “Bussin’ With the Boys,” Logan Paul’s “Impaulsive,” and even appeared on a Kick livestream with controversial streamer Adin Ross, which peaked at over 580,000 viewers.
While Harris received endorsements from the majority of Congressional Democrats and 54 celebrities, these endorsements failed to resonate with voters in the same way. Celebrity endorsements hold little sway compared to the influence of political media personalities. In contrast to Trump’s success in leveraging influential figures like Joe Rogan in new media, the Democratic Party struggles to connect with a large portion of the American electorate. Perhaps it’s time they take cues from Bernie Sanders! In response to Beyoncé ‘s speech in a rally in Houston, America is divided and it’s time to admit it. Trump’s first victory was a wake up call and the second alarm clock just rang again. Democrats must come to terms with the fact that their positioning and communication strategy are fundamentally isolating large swaths of the American public.
Remember the 4 Ps of product-market fit? Truth doesn’t sell — promise does. Trump embodies all four: persona, problem, promise, and himself as the product. And he is great at selling himself to Americans.
